New Report Forecasts World Corrugated Packaging Market Returns to Growth Trajectory in 2024

Global containerboard and corrugated board demand are facing a series of challenges and shifts in market dynamics across the next five years. These are expertly profiled, and quantified in the new market data report — The Future of Global Corrugated Packaging to 2029 — from Smithers, a multinational provider of testing, consulting, information, and compliance services.

The report's in-depth analysis of capacity changes, pulp pricing, and end-user demands shows that in 2023, global containerboard production was 183.4 million metric tons, a -4% decline on 2022. These were converted into around 165 million tons of corrugated board, a decrease of more than -7% on 2022; with value reaching $224.4 billion. This reflects the end of the period of disruption in world supply that began in 2020 with Covid-19, which was characterized by disruption to global logistics impacting demand, price fluctuations leading to high inventories, and subsequent destocking.

Smithers is now able to forecast slight growth across 2024, with value increasing to $231.7 billion. This will be followed by a broader recovery in world demand at an average annual growth (AGR) of +2.5% by volume. This will see world corrugated volumes reach 190 million tons in 2029; value in the market will increase at a +3.7% AGR to $277.6 billion, at constant prices.

Many major containerboard suppliers have already invested in increased capacity, which will manifest in low operating rates across much of the Smithers forecast period. This is prompting moves that will redraw the commercial landscape for corrugated, with four of the six largest converters worldwide - Smurfit Kappa/WestRock (Sept 2023); DS Smith/International Paper (April 2024) - pursuing multi-billion-dollar mergers. Other firms are rationalizing operations; delaying further investment, taking extra downtime or even closing older mills and box plants.

Across 2024-2029, demand for corrugated packaging will vary across the 13 different end-use sectors Smithers profiles. The packaging and transportation of food products accounted for over 46% of the consumption of corrugated packaging material during 2023, a relatively constant level since 2016, but is expected to change slightly to 47% by 2029. This will include a new surge for corrugated grades for processed foods, although growth in fresh food & produce will be slower, and electrical goods are expected to have the most attractive volume growth of all products.

Multiple opportunities are arising for corrugated materials. Their recyclability means they are increasing being favored by brand and legislators, not just in transit, but consumer-facing primary packs. This is pushing converters towards finer, premium flute grades that can compete with folding cartons in sectors such as cosmetics, confectionery, and consumer electronics.