Analysis of import volume and price of waste paper pulp

Since China announced the implementation of trade policies to restrict waste paper imports in 2017, the international waste paper market has undergone a major change in its trade pattern. As the world's largest importer of waste paper, my country's net imports of waste paper have dropped sharply from 28.4962 million tons in 2016 to 6.8913 million tons in 2020. On November 25, 2020, the "Announcement on the Comprehensive Prohibition of the Import of Solid Waste" stated that it is prohibited to import solid waste in any way. The announcement will take effect on January 1, 2021, and waste paper is basically prohibited from entering the country.

In order to solve the problems of shortage of high-quality raw materials and rising production costs, Golden paper has set up layouts in North America, Northern Europe, Southeast Asia and other places, and with the help of overseas recycled fiber pulp mills, waste paper is made into recycled fiber pulp in overseas pulp mills and imported into China.

According to customs statistics, from January 2021 to date, the import volume of waste paper pulp has shown a gradual increase, from 2.44 million tons in 2021 to 2.88 million tons in 2022, and then to 4.47 million tons in 2023. As of now, the import volume of waste paper pulp in the first half of 2024 was 2.35 million tons, and the annual import volume is expected to reach about 4.7 million tons.

In terms of import prices, affected by the solid waste import policy, the average import price was US$333/ton in January 2021, and then the price basically showed an upward trend, reaching a high of US$480/ton in October 2021, an increase of 44%, and then the price fluctuated at a stable high level.

With the increase in the domestic market waste paper recycling rate and the supply and demand relationship, the international market trade policy and exchange rate fluctuations and other factors, since the average price of US$457/ton in August 2022, the price has been falling all the way, and the price fell to US$253/ton in August 2023. Since then, the paper price has been stable and strong, with limited overall fluctuations. The latest data shows that in June 2024, my country's pulp imports were 2.61 million tons, of which waste pulp imports were 320,000 tons, accounting for about 12.26%, and the average import price was US$282 per ton.